Diagnóstico multivariable para la determinación del índice de serviciabilidad en la autopista E40 desde el kilómetro 12 hasta el 16, Guayaquil - Ecuador

Abstract

This study develops a multivariable diagnostic to determine and explain the behavior of the Present Serviceability Index (PSI) along Ecuador's E40 highway (Vía a la Costa) between km 12+000 and km 16+000, integrating pavement functional indicators, traffic demand, and environmental drivers. The 4-km corridor was divided into 200-m sub-segments, considering two travel directions and three lanes, resulting in 120 records for analysis. Methodologically, data were collected using RTK-UAV photogrammetry (orthomosaic and DEM), processed in Metashape/Civil 3D, and longitudinal roughness was measured with RoadLab Pro; a multi-temporal urban expansion component (Google Earth Pro) was added as a contextual pressure factor on mobility demand. Results show an overall PSI mean of 2.73 (minimum 1.98; maximum 3.16), with most observations classified as acceptable (70%), yet a meaningful share already in regular condition (19.2%) and one poor point (0.8%). Correlation analysis indicates that PSI reduction is driven mainly by functional variables: PSI−IRI:(r≈−0.996) and PSI−RD:(r≈−0.996), while C+P:(r≈−0.258) and SV:(r≈−0.079) play a weaker role in the sample. Traffic results confirm high demand: total AADT (TPDA) = 23,805 veh/day, with heavy vehicles = 4,911 veh/day (20.6%), which can disproportionately accelerate deterioration. In addition, the surface hydrology assessment identifies dominant longitudinal flatness and low evacuation capacity, linking PSI < 2 points to lateral runoff and drainage deficiencies. Overall, the study provides quantitative evidence to prioritize maintenance actions in critical sub-segments by combining traffic, drainage, and pavement functional performance.