Dimensionamiento de un sistema fotovoltaico a través del análisis estocástico de la radiación solar y demanda energética

Abstract

The research proposes a methodology for the design and sizing of photovoltaic systems that avoids the oversizing of components such as panels and batteries, optimizing efficiency and reducing costs. The method is based on the statistical analysis of solar radiation and energy demand, using Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate energy generation and consumption. This approach ensures system reliability while reducing installation and maintenance costs, and it also promotes the use of solar energy and sustainable development. Algorithms are incorporated to consider key variables such as solar irradiance and energy demand, along with technical aspects like panel tilt and inverter sizing. The methodology is validated by comparing simulated results with data from a real system, yielding a 3.75% error, which confirms the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed approach.