Estimación de la incertidumbre en la generación del hidrograma de crecida, caso de estudio: Barrio “La Gasca”, Quito, Ecuador

Abstract

Global urban growth has altered natural drainage processes, increasing surface runoff due to less soil infiltration. In the La Gasca neighborhood, flood hydrographs are evaluated with different methods. The SCS Method estimates an average flow rate of 2.75 m³/s (range 0.11-5.39 m³/s), a runoff volume of 21.96 mm and a peak time of 688 minutes. In contrast, the Clark Method provides an average flow rate of 6.91 m³/s (range 6.79-7.02 m³/s), a runoff volume of 38.74 mm and a peak time of 647 minutes. The SCS Method presents an uncertainty of 48.50% for the upper limit and 55.42% for the lower limit, while the Clark Method shows an uncertainty of 27.92% and 55.01%, respectively. This indicates that the Clark Method offers more consistent estimates with lower uncertainty compared to the SCS Method.