Análisis de los efectos del incremento del IVA en el consumo interno: Evidencia del Ecuador

Abstract

This research is justified by the relevance of Value Added Tax as one of the main sources of tax revenue in Ecuador and by the economic and social effects of its increase from 12% to 15%, applied in 2024. Given that domestic consumption is a fundamental component of aggregate demand and household welfare, this study analyzes how this tax adjustment affected spending patterns, purchasing Powers, and economic dynamics in a context of slowing production and deteriorating internal security. The objective of the study is to analyze the impact of the VAT increase on domestic consumption in Ecuador, with an emphasis on households in the canton of Guayaquil. The methodology is a mixed approach, with a non-experimental design and descriptive-analytical scope, using data from the Central Bank of Ecuador, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses, and the Internal Revenue Service, a survey of 150 households, and semi-structured interviews with specialists in economics and taxation. The results show an increase in tax revenue, accompanied by a rise in the cost of living, a loss of purchasing power, and a contraction in the consumption of non-essential goods. It is concluded that the VAT increase strengthened public finances in the short term but generated economic and social costs that require additional compensatory fiscal policies.