Análisis del impacto de la importación de combustibles en la balanza comercial del Ecuador en el período 2015 - 2024

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of fuel imports on Ecuador’s trade balance during the period 2015–2024, using official statistical information from the Central Bank of Ecuador. The research adopts a quantitative and descriptive approach, which allows for the examination of the evolution of fuel imports, total exports, and the trade balance, as well as their effect on the country’s outflow of foreign currency. The results show that fuel imports followed an upward trend throughout the period analyzed, reaching an accumulated value of approximately USD 47.174 billion. This behavior limited the benefits derived from oil exports, as nearly 47% of crude oil export revenues were allocated to the purchase of imported refined products. Furthermore, the analysis identifies 2022 as a critical year, driven by the increase in international fuel prices, the post-pandemic economic recovery, and structural constraints in national refining capacity. The study concludes that dependence on imported fuels has had a negative and persistent impact on Ecuador’s trade balance, revealing a structural vulnerability in the external sector. In this context, the need to strengthen domestic refining capacity, review fuel subsidy policies, and promote energy efficiency is highlighted in order to improve long-term economic sustainability