Análisis de la incidencia del precio internacional del petróleo en la balanza comercial ecuatoriana en el periodo 2018 – 2023

Abstract

This study is carried out with the purpose of analyzing the relationship between the variation of the oil price and the Ecuadorian trade balance in the period 2018 - 2023, the main objective is to identify if there is a significant correlation between the WTI price on the trade balance, oil balance and non-oil balance. Methodologically, a Pearson correlation statistical analysis was applied, using monthly data for each variable. The results obtained show a moderate correlation between the price of WTI and the oil trade balance, indicating that a variation in the price of crude oil will also be reflected in the oil balance. However, this phenomenon has counterproductive effects on the trade balance since the country also imports crude oil derivatives which become more expensive when the price of WTI increases. This increase generates an increase in the productive sectors, raising domestic prices and reducing competition from non-oil exports. It is established that the Ecuadorian economy is highly dependent on petroleum revenues, although petroleum contributes to the country's balance, it also has negative effects on non-oil sectors, indicating the need to diversify.