Evaluación de índices de confiabilidad aplicados en el sistema de generación eólica, mediante el modelo Arima considerando variaciones en la velocidad del viento

Abstract

This paper is based at evaluation of reliability indexes applied to the wind generation system. For the optimization process, the arima model is used considering variations in the wind speed in conjunction with values that can be taken from the Villonaco wind generation plant. The model used helps to verify and equate the various results of active power in one of the wind turbines of Villonaco in conjunction with the values of wind variations that can occur on an annual, monthly and weekly basis. The results obtained were validated using digital simulation Matlab/Econometrics model, a program that is responsible for helping with the long-term extension of the useful life of each of the most important elements within the wind farm such as generators and transformers where various solutions can be obtained to apply the formulation of the reliability indexes which in this case are LOLP and LOLE, whose purpose is to have a generation system with an affirmative prediction having an improvement in its stability and avoiding losses that propagate along the electrical transmission.