Proyecciones de los índices de cambio climático en la provincia de Tungurahua, al año 2070

Abstract

The objective of this study is to determine the effects of climate change with in situ data and its projections to the year 2070 generated by the Climate Change Models published in the Third National Communication provided by the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition, through the calculation of the indices recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The study area includes the Province of Tungurahua. For the validation of the model, in situ data from stations M0008-Puyo, M0127-Píllaro, M0128-Pedro Fermín and M0258-Querochaca were used, with a temporal range of 37 to 58 years and a data availability greater than 70% for the variables used for the climatology analysis (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation), The data provided by INHAMHI was necessary to perform the bias correction to the in situ data on the modeled data and for the analysis of Climate Change to the year 2070 in the province a cell size of (10 km x 10 km) was used, finally, with the corrected data the indexes were analyzed in RClimDex and evaluating the statistically significant results for RCP 4. 5 and 8.5 it was determined that maximum temperatures register an increase of 1.7°C up to 2.3°C, for minimum temperatures register an increase of 1.7°C up to 2. 9°C and total precipitation at the Puyo station ranges from 3300 mm/year to 4400 mm/year and for the inter-Andean region from 800 mm/year to 1420 mm/year. Thematic cartography was also prepared with the results, which indicate that climate change will be irreversible before the year 2070 for precipitation and temperature in the entire inter-Andean region, which is prone to temperature increase and for precipitation, the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme rainfall events are increasing.