Estudio del impacto fiscal para el estado por el subsidio del combustible debido al contrabando en las fronteras

Abstract

This article presents a study of the fiscal impact that the State has for the diesel fuel subsidy due to contraband at the borders for the years 2016 to 2022, the data was obtained from reports of the Unit national for the investigation of hidrocarbon crimes (UNIDH) of the judicial police. An estomate of the contraband fuel subsidy was made for the year 2022, using the simple moving average model. In addition, a multiple linear regression model was obtained for the variables: number of the police operations, number of military operations, number of border police, unidentified border crossings and price of a barred of oil. The results show that there is a subsidy loss for diesel contraband of $380,758.91 which can be reduced with the increase in border control by the state, as indicated by the regression model, avoinding the elimination of the subsidy, harming the country policitically and economically