Estudio de la proyección de la demanda eléctrica y su impacto en el sistema de CNEL EP - Unidad de negocio Los Rios en el periodo comprendido del 2019 al 2024

Abstract

The objective of the present titling project is to analyze the projection of electricity demand that the business department in the Electricity National Corporation in Los Ríos will have during 2019 - 2024 period, the one which was executed using the database extracted from the technical reports and electrification master plans, provided by CNEL-EP, MEER, ARCONEL and BCE. Through the use of the MINITAB software, the chronological study of the demand and electrical power was made. According to the precision indicators, the method most adjusted to the behavior of the electricity demand was determined, in order to obtain the projections for the 2019 - 2024 study period in the four proposed scenarios. With the help of the CYMDIST engineering software, the load flows were made, to analyze the voltage and electric current variations in the bars of the electrical substations. The projections obtained in scenarios 1 and 2 were contrasted with the prognostication the electricity master plan 2016-2025 made by MEER and the electricity master plan 2012-2021 made by CONELEC; in scenario 3, the demand projection methodology was determined for each electrical substation; and conclusively in scenario 4, the impact caused by the increase of load in the power electrical system was analyzed, verifying compliance with the voltage levels established in the regulation of Regulation No. ARCONEL - 005/18 which refers to the quality of the service; after verification, technical recommendations were proposed to improve the system.