Análisis predictivo de la cargabilidad de línea de subtransmisión Nueva Prosperina 2 (69KV) en base al crecimiento anual de la demanda de energía

Abstract

The main objective is to project the growth of electrical demand using polynomial regression techniques. This will allow for estimating the time at which the line will reach its maximum operational capacity. Such analysis is crucial for developing strategies to ensure a reliable electricity supply for consumers dependent on this transmission line. The LST NP2 supplies both residential and industrial areas in the northwest region of Guayaquil, Ecuador. This study covers the provision of electrical energy at 69 KV voltage levels for various consumers.

Once the current installed capacity is estimated through the unifilar diagram of the LST and the energy consumption is analyzed using historical records, the capacity at which the LST Nueva Prosperina 2 will operate and its behavior will be projected using the model. At the same time, a simulation will be modeled using DIGSILENT software to verify the growth with the projection model and ensure compliance with all requirements set by the supplying entity CNEL EP, specifically the Guayaquil business unit. This will enable the evaluation of decisions that facilitate the progressive development of adjacent areas without halting their growth, as outlined in Executive Decree No. 238, Republic of Ecuador.