Estimación y proyección del factor de producción y eficiencia de una central de generación fotovoltaica aplicando modelos lineales

Abstract

Currently, the transition to renewable energy sources, especially photovoltaic solar energy, is a global priority. This article focuses on the application of advanced linear models, specifically ARIMA models, to enhance the efficiency and performance of photovoltaic plants. These models enable the capture of seasonal patterns and trends in solar generation, utilizing historical data from a specific plant. The study concentrates on the analysis of energy production data, solar radiation, and environmental variables from a photovoltaic plant at the Universidad Politécnica Salesiana, Campus Sur. The developed ARIMA models provide reliable estimates and projections of production factor and efficiency, facilitating optimal maintenance and operational planning. The results demonstrate that the ARIMA model performs well in predicting solar plant power up to 2028, with relatively low prediction errors. These precise estimates are essential for maximizing return on investment and reducing operational costs, significantly contributing to the transition towards a more sustainable energy future.