Análisis del balance energético nacional como herramienta para procesos de descarbonización en el sector del transporte, evaluación de método y escenarios sostenibles

Abstract

The analysis of an energy consuming sector is important for the country, in this case the transportation sector, which provides information on the energy consumption that it uses over the years and thanks to this it was possible to know the emissions of greenhouse gases. greenhouse effect it emits. By carrying out detailed research on the historical data of the national energy balance in this sector, with emphasis on its air, land and maritime modes, as well as the associated emissions, this research helped to provide a deep understanding of the past evolution of said sector. Using actual historical data as a starting point and with this, forecasts were made for a future period. The implementation of the ARIMA model in matlab facilitated the evaluation of various configurations, thus allowing the most effective model to be identified. This was based on key parameters, including AIC, BIC, P-value and T-statistic, establishing a solid foundation for the identification of the optimal model. By choosing the model considered the best and most appropriate to project itself as adequate in the coming years.