Planificación de la expansión de la red eléctrica a mediano plazo mediante análisis de consumo eléctrico en los sectores residencial, industrial y comercial, usando series temporales SARIMA: Caso de estudio Empresa Eléctrica Riobamba S.A. (EERSA)-Ecuador

Abstract

The objective of this article is to carry out the expansion planning of the electrical network in the Empresa Eléctrica Riobamba S.A. (EERSA) in Ecuador under the criterion of level 1 reliability, which considers only generation and load with a probability of service of 1. Prediction techniques based on time series are used, employing models such as ARMA, ARIMA, and SARIMA to forecast electricity consumption in residential, industrial, and commercial sectors. The Matlab software is used for model design and demand prediction. Energy consumption data was obtained from historical information held by EERSA, spanning from January 2001 to November 2022. The prediction of electricity demand shows results close to reality before the year 2020, but a considerable variation is observed in recent years due to atypical factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic. In the industrial sector, the prediction aligns with actual demand before 2018. However, after that date, the demand is affected by the pandemic and the presence of a major consumer, Cemento Chimborazo, which intermittently joins and leaves EERSA's consumers within specific time periods, causing significant variation in electricity demand in that sector. Moreover, the expansion of the network in electricity consumption indicates that the obtained prediction has a closer approximation to the actual consumption growth data compared to the prediction generated by EERSA.