Propuesta de un modelo para estimar la probabilidad de incumplimiento de las cuentas por cobrar y el impacto en la liquidez del ciclo operativo en el sector comercial textil en Guayaquil

Abstract

The research work proposes a logistic model for the estimation of the probability of non-compliance with accounts receivable, the research design used is non-experimental, the data were not manipulated, the balances of the Commercial Client Portfolio were used as of December 31, 2020 of five fabric marketing companies in the city of Guayaquil, through logistic regression the probability of an event happening is estimated on the possibility that the event does not happen, the model with the lowest AIC was selected, this model is correctly adjusted 99.94% of the time, according to the estimated coefficients the time in years elapsed since the granting of the credit increases the probability of default. The research technique adopted is the documentary review, information obtained from; laws, regulations, EP documentary material (expected loss) and the probability of non-compliance.