Evaluación del efecto de los incendios forestales, cambio climático, cambio de uso del suelo y estrategias de conservación sobre poblaciones de Vaccinium floribundum Kunth caso de estudio: Volcán El Corazón

Abstract

The present investigation was conducted to analyze how different anthropogenic activities and the climate change affect the potential distribution of an endemic species of Ecuador. Regarding the influence of forest fires on the potential distribution of Vaccinium floribundum Kunth, it was determined that, due to the climatic conditions and vegetation of the area, one year after the event the surface temperature of the soil of the burned area is balanced to the conditions reported in the area that was not affected by the fire, offering a favorable environment for the development of the species. It was determined the potential area of distribution of the mortiño by means of Maxent software using 4 bioclimatic variables with 137 records, which corresponds to 1955664,30 Ha located in the Ecuadorian mountain range. It was also recorded that 23 of the 59 protected areas have climatic conditions required for the growth of mortiño, occupying 541559.83 Ha within the potential distribution of the same, which guarantees a care of a large percentage of the species. It was determined that 31.08% of the potential distribution area is in areas destined for agricultural activities and 0.5% in areas where human settlements are located; it is important to mention that the advance of the agricultural frontier and urban expansion threaten the natural distribution of this species found in the moors. Finally, the influence of climate change was analyzed in RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5; for the first case, an increase of 26.15% was obtained in the territory of potential distribution, for the second case a decrease of 3.40% was obtained, that is to say, on the one hand scenario 2.6 is considered optimistic since atmospheric emissions have a tendency to decrease, thus provoking the natural development of the species. However, the RCP scenario 8.5 is considered catastrophic due to the increase in atmospheric emissions, therefore the increase in global temperature of 4 °C threatens sensitive ecosystems such as the moors where the species under study is found.