Análisis de la evolución del peso relativo de la recaudación del IVA en el presupuesto general del estado, período 2015–2023

Abstract

The Ecuadorian government's general state budget is its primary financial planning instrument, where one of the various revenue streams is tax collection capacity, which depends fundamentally on the collection of tax revenue. Ecuador's budget structure has undergone a reconfiguration in its sources of financing due to the reduced share of oil revenue and external shocks. This research analyzes the evolution of the relative weight of value-added tax (VAT) revenue within the Ecuadorian general state budget during the period 2015-2023. The main objective of the study was to determine the degree of dependence of public finance on this indirect tax. A quantitative research approach with a descriptive and correlational scope was implemented, using time series analysis and applying the calculation of tax buoyancy indicators. The results show that VAT’s share of the budget increased significantly during the period studied, demonstrating that consumption revenue has displaced oil revenue. Consequently, the relative weight of VAT has become consolidated as a key structural element for the country's fiscal stability, since a third of state operations are now financed directly by household consumption, making finances more sensitive to economic cycles.