Impacto de los tratados de libre comercio sobre la balanza comercial mundial: un análisis cuantitativo comparativo

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between free trade agreements and the trade balance of goods, measured as TB/GDP, in a context of expanding agreements and heterogeneous empirical evidence. The objective is to evaluate differences in the trade balance of signatory countries before and after entry into force, contextualizing changes through institutional evolution and trade dynamics. Methodologically, a quantitative descriptive–comparative approach is used, with a non-experimental longitudinal design. The dataset includes 62 countries for 1990–2024, with inferential emphasis on Latin America. Data comes from the World Bank and the World Trade Organization. TB/GDP is used to improve international comparability. Normality is assessed with Shapiro–Wilk and inference through Mann–Whitney. Results show high heterogeneity and no common patterns, suggesting effects conditioned by pre-existing structures. These findings support interpreting agreements as regime changes.