Análisis del crecimiento económico a través de la evolución del PIB y su correlación con el empleo en el Ecuador, en el periodo 2015-2024

Abstract

This study analyzes the correlation between economic growth and adequate employment in Ecuador during the period 2015–2024, with the objective of assessing the extent to which changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) have influenced the generation of adequate employment. The analysis is conducted within a context marked by significant economic fluctuations, resulting from external shocks such as the decline in oil prices, the 2016 earthquake, and, in particular, the COVID-19 pandemic, all of which conditioned macroeconomic performance and labor market dynamics. The methodology employed is descriptive and quantitative in nature, based on statistical information from official sources such as the Central Bank of Ecuador and the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC). Annual series of real GDP and the adequate employment rate are analyzed, complemented by statistical tools such as Pearson’s correlation coefficient, in order to examine the relationship between both variables over the study period. The results show that Ecuador’s economic growth was heterogeneous and unstable, with significant episodes of expansion and contraction. Although years of strong economic recovery were observed, especially in the post-pandemic period, these did not translate proportionally into improvements in adequate employment. The adequate employment rate exhibited an overall weakening trend, with a partial recovery following the health crisis, without reaching the levels observed in the initial years of the period. It is concluded that, during the period 2015–2024, economic growth in Ecuador was not sufficient to generate sustained improvements in employment quality. This highlights the need to complement growth-oriented policies with specific strategies aimed at generating adequate employment, strengthening productive capacity, and reducing informality.