Subsidio a los combustibles y su incidencia en la sostenibilidad fiscal del Ecuador (2000 – 2024).

Abstract

Fuel subsidies have been one of the most persistent and significant fiscal policies in the Ecuadorian economy in recent decades, with a notable impact on the sustainability of public finances. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze the impact of fuel subsidy spending on Ecuador's fiscal sustainability from 2000 to 2024, considering the fiscal deficit as the primary transmission channel. To this end, a non-experimental, longitudinal, and retrospective quantitative approach was used, based on annual time series from official sources, and a logdifferential elasticity between variables was estimated. Based on the results, a positive and statistically significant relationship was demonstrated, where increases in subsidy spending are associated with proportional increases of 0.5% in the fiscal deficit. This confirms that widespread subsidies are a structural source of fiscal pressure, limiting the state's ability to maintain a balanced budget.