Análisis del efecto del gasto público en educación sobre el crecimiento económico en el Ecuador para el periodo (2008-2024)

Abstract

This study analyzes the impact of public spending on education on Ecuador's economic growth between 2008 and 2024. Its objective is to determine whether state investment in the education system has significantly contributed to national economic development. A quantitative methodology with a descriptive-comparative approach was applied, using official statistics on GDP, education spending, the Economically Active Population (EAP), and the illiteracy rate. Through time series analysis and rates of change, patterns and possible causes among these variables were identified. The results show that, although education spending doubled in nominal terms during the period, its proportion of GDP remained stable, averaging 3.75%. A positive correlation was evident between increased spending on education and the reduction in illiteracy (from 6.8% to 3.5%), as well as the growth of the EAP (from 5.5 million to 8 million). However, the effect on GDP has been moderate and dependent on the fiscal context. The quality of spending, rather than its volume, was key: weaknesses in the link between training and labor demand were identified, as well as infrastructure deficiencies. The conclusion is that, although spending on education has had positive social effects, its structural impact on economic growth remains limited due to a lack of strategic planning and alignment with the production model.