Análisis del nivel de incidencia del desempleo en el Ecuador en los índices de pobreza y extrema pobreza para el periodo 2007-2023

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between unemployment and poverty in Ecuador (2007–2023) using a quantitative, longitudinal, and correlational approach, with data from INEC, ECLAC, and the World Bank. The impact of unemployment on general and extreme poverty was assessed, considering underemployment and labor informality as control variables. The results indicate that unemployment has a significant effect on extreme poverty (R² = 0.445; p = 0.003), while its relationship with general poverty is moderate (R² = 0.200; p = 0.072). Multiple regression confirmed its relevance as a predictor, although underemployment and informality showed no significant effects individually. It is concluded that unemployment is a key structural factor in the persistence of extreme poverty, and it is recommended to prioritize public policies aimed at generating formal and sustainable employment as a means to reduce social exclusion.