La tasa de activa y el crédito de consumo en la banca privada ecuatoriana: Un estudio econométrico

Abstract

This scientific paper seeks to determine the impact of the lending rate and other macroeconomic variables on the amount of consumer credit granted by private banks in the city of Guayaquil, Ecuador. Through a quantitative and causal approach, we proceeded with the downloading of data from the public information of the Central Bank of Ecuador. The results show a moderate and positive causality between the lending rate and macroeconomic variables and consumer credit. The variations experienced by the lending rate together with the other changes in the other variables have a significant impact on the variations of consumer credit, limiting its growth or in other cases favoring it. The study shows how important it is to understand how these variables can have a causal effect on each other, and to be able to make better decisions in the face of variations in the variables. These analyses are vital to promote economic development, especially in the area of private banking, since it is the engine of the economy of Guayaquil, Ecuador. The research provides valuable evidence to guide future financial data analysts to make better decisions based on the evidence.