Evaluación y determinación del escenario hidrológico futuro 2050 de la cuenca alta del río Mira

Abstract

The upper Mira River basin currently exhibits an increase in agricultural activities (17.7%), which, as of 2020, accounts for 51% of the total land area. Given these conditions and the potential impact of climate change in this region, this study has estimated the future hydrological scenario for the upper Mira River basin in 2050. To do so, the aggregated hydrological model GR2M was applied, incorporating characteristics of a semi-distributed model approach at the level of hydrographic sub-basins, with limited local hydrometeorological data, land use and land type information, and climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results indicate that the basin's flow could increase by 7.3% to 12.4%, considering projected increases in precipitation and temperature by the year 2050. Regarding future land use changes, the model is not sensitive to change and predicts a decrease in water availability by 1% to 8%. Consequently, implementing effective integrated water resource management in the present can have a positive impact on the future, facilitating a perspective for sustainable water management