Estudio de cambio climático y sus proyecciones al 2070 en el cantón Ventanas, provincia de Los Ríos

Abstract

This research analyzes the possible effects of climate change on the climatology of the area through the rates recommended by the Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel (ECTCCDI), in Ventanas Canton, in Los Ríos Province, both on historical data from 1980 to 2015, and projected to the year 2070. For the climatology analysis, we used monthly and daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation data from 5 INAMHI weather stations near the study area: Pichilingue (M0006); Babahoyo - UTB (M0051); Echeandía (M0383); Ventanas (M0465); and Mocache (M0470) over a time range of 30 to 40 years. The CC analysis was performed with daily data corresponding to the Pichilingue (M0006) and Babahoyo - UTB (M0051) stations, the data modeled in two scenarios (4.5 for optimistic scenario and 8.5 for pessimistic scenario), the projected data were provided by the Ministry of Environment, Water and Ecological Transition. Format conversion was performed with Python, and quality assurance in RStudio, as well as the climatology study and correction of the modeled data after bias correction by subtracting the averages of the in-situ vs. projected data, using the historical period from 1980 to 2015. Thematic mapping of the area was performed and finally the analysis of the CC rates was performed in RClimDex both with historical data from 1980 to 2015 and with the corrected projected data from 2011 to 2070. The results indicate statistically significant effects of climate change on the study area, where it experiences an increase in maximum temperatures from 1.5°C to 1.9°C, minimum temperatures from 1.8°C° to 2.2°C, and extreme rain events over 99th percentile from 50 mm/year to 300 mm/year by 2070. This will show increases in both the intensity and frequency of extreme rain events and in maximum and minimum temperatures as well as increases in the frequency of occurrence of these events. It is recommended that inhabitants and decision makers generate adaptation and mitigation plans for these imminent climate change events.