Estimación de la demanda para micro-zonas basado en el modelo autorregresivo integrado de promedio móvil

Abstract

This research presents a method that allows forecasting demand at the micro zone level for a given time series, in this case the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA). The development of this research is based on demand data corresponding to the years 2016 to 2020 of the Auqui and Nayón hills, areas in which population growth has been observed over the years, therefore, there will be an increase in demand, an essential factor in the planning of distribution networks. For this, the Box Jenkins methodology is applied, which allows us to identify and ensure the seasonality of the series, a necessary condition to apply ARIMA, this will allow us to know the demand in the future, for which the analysis of three case studies according to their equipment is proposed. Finally, the estimation of the demand for the years 2021 to 2025 is carried out, this analysis is executed in Matlab and Excel software, showing the estimation of the total demand per year.