Análisis del impacto de la ley orgánica de apoyo humanitario en la demanda de créditos otorgados al sector productivo por las instituciones del sistema financiero privado con calificación AAA, durante el periodo 2020

Abstract

In 2020, the world economy was vulnerable by the confinement produced by the COVID-19 pandemic. In the situation of Ecuador, emergent economic procedures were applied in order to restart the economy and curb the discharge of employees. One of the measures was to stimulate the financial area to defer, reorganize and offer new lines of credit; mainly to the productive sector. The research was based on the quantitative analysis of the financial information and loan portfolio of the 11 private banks with a "AAA" risk rating, as well as the data from the main economic sectors generating employment in the 2020 period. In addition, through interviews with experts in the national financial system, the point of view was obtained from the experience in the application of the regulatory framework. The results determined as activities with the highest job creation in the 2020 period, agriculture, livestock and fishing, wholesale and retail trade and manufacturing industries with 18%, 15% and 11% of current contracts; respectively. These activities are among those that most resorted to sources of financing with the exception of livestock, farming and fishing. Consumer loans also stand out with 11.31% of a portfolio of USD 23,526 million, surpassing economic sectors such as agriculture, administrative and support activities, insurance and construction. It was also concluded that AAA-rated banks own 87% of the bank loan portfolio nationwide. Among said portfolio, the ones that stand out are the Banco de Guayaquil with 23%, Banco Pichincha with 22% and Produbanco with 17%. Additionally, it is observed that 98% of the banking portfolio at the national level is recognized as "original portfolio" despite the fact that a large part of this portfolio underwent changes in its initially granted conditions.