Análisis de causalidad entre los incrementos del retraso troposférico de la señal GPS y las precipitaciones lluviosas, caso de estudio Antisana

Abstract

The objective of the present experimental work was to analyze the causality between the recorded increases of the tropospheric delay of the signal of the Global Positioning System (GPS) of the Geophysical Institute Network of the National Polytechnic School (IG EPN), with registered precipitation values in the Antisana area. A causality analysis was carried out between the increases in the tropospheric delay ZTD (Zenith Total Delay) of the GPS signal and the rainfall in the Antisana area, with which the data to be related was defined based on the spatial and temporal correspondences of the area. The present climatology was constructed with 14-year data with the following atmospheric variables: rain, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and specific humidity from 2005 to 2018. To relate the climatic variables with the ZTD, we worked only with the year 2014. Since it is this year that presented the ZTD calculations. The ZTD series calculated at the Research Institute for Development -France (IRD) in conjunction with the Salesian Polytechnic University, and the precipitation values recorded in the area analyzed, with RStudio software. A correspondence was found between the values of ZTD and precipitation at the monthly level, which indicates a proportional behavior between the rain and ZTD, while at the hourly level a peak of ZTD prior to the 3-hour rain peak that can be dispersed up to 18 hours, which shows the predictive capacity of this variable in detecting significant heavy rain events.