"Estimación de la curva de la demanda a corto plazo en función de una onda madre"

Abstract

This article is developed to determine the mother curve or pattern of a historical database, which allows estimating the behavior of consumer demand in the short term of an electrical power system, through the application of the MapReduce methodology (mining of data) using the Matlab program, which allows proper handling of historical data. Based on the above, the development of tools that allow forecasting the growth and behavior of the demand of an electrical system becomes preponderant, especially with the entry of distributed intermittent generation and the various industrial and special loads that may be connected in the systems. of distribution. These tools must provide for the proper handling of a large amount of information, which contributes to the development of complementary programs that allow electricity companies or system operators to predict the generation necessary to meet the conditions of reliability and continuity of the electricity supply to the final user.