Evaluación de la confiabilidad de generación mediante el índice de pérdida esperada de carga (LOLE) usando una formulación probabilística

Abstract

Electrical power systems, as they are the fundamental elements in the distribution of electrical energy, must be designed to meet the required parameters of reliability and safety. Ensuring that electricity consumption is not affected by damage that may occur, it is necessary to use probabilistic approaches related to the occurrence of failures to ensure a stable, safe and above all reliable system. Therefore, the present work is focused on carrying out a study of the reliability indicator LOLE, which allows controlling the risk criteria of the equipment or elements of the power system. For this reason, a generic mathematical model simulated in Matlab has been elaborated, which by means of the construction of tables of capacity loss allows to introduce data for n generators, in addition, uses different forced rates of exit (FOR), this to elaborate plans of expansion of generation. It should also be added that it allows the modification of the linear load that it may have and the annual growths that are going to be made for future projections that allow the increase of additional units in order to guarantee a reliable and safe risk criterion.