Evaluación de la confiabilidad del sistema de generación y transmisión considerando fallas de causa común en líneas y el método Monte Carlo

Abstract

Electrical power systems are developed to the supply of electricity to final consumers, so these systems must be designed or implemented in a correct way, this is done within the standard parameters which directly affect the ability to fulfill its function as such. With this, it would be possible to meet the demands of the reliability requirements which are: quality and safety. Therefore, this work focuses on conducting an evaluation of the reliability of electrical power systems, specifically at the hierarchical level II, in order to determine a of long-term transmission lines expansion plan. The analysis is carried out in periods of 3, 5 and 10 years. For the effect of calculating reliability indexes, the mathematical model of the Monte Carlo Sequential method is elaborated, which is implemented in Matlab. The model is applied in two test systems, finding for each one different reliability indexes that allow deciding on the need for an expansion in transmission lines.